Software calculates probability of cancer

Result view ProZES

New software will make it possible to calculate how likely it is that cancer was triggered by ionising radiation. The program, called ProZES, was developed on behalf of the Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS) and will support experts in validating occupational diseases.

In certain occupational groups (e.g. medical staff or former uranium mining workers), lung cancer and other types of cancer can be caused by radiation. However, it is not always possible to clearly determine whether a particular disease was actually triggered by occupational radiation exposure. In this context, correlation probability plays an important role.

Information on the disease allows conclusions to be drawn about the influence of ionising radiation

With the ProZES software, BfS provides a new tool for assessing the influence of radiation. If sufficiently detailed information on the disease and the type and level of radiation dose is available for a person suffering from cancer, the program can not only calculate the correlation probability but also assess the reliability of this calculation.

President of the Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Dr Inge Paulini

"Whether an instance of cancer was triggered by radiation can never be confirmed with absolute certainty. You can only ever calculate one probability. The reliability of this calculation depends on many different factors", explains BfS President Inge Paulini. "By making ProZES available, we want to help ensure that the judgement of whether a cancer has a high probability of being related to radiation exposure rests on solid foundations reflecting the current state of science."

ProZES builds on the previous methods for calculating the correlation probability by using current models on radiation risk that were specifically adapted to the demographic situation in Germany as well as the general frequency of cancer in the German population.

Download program free of charge

ProZES was developed by the Institute for Radiation Protection at Helmholtz Zentrum München on behalf of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety and the BfS. The publication was preceded by a test phase lasting several years. In particular, the program was reviewed in detail by external experts and reviewers. The final version of the program is available for free download at www.bfs.de/prozes.

The correct use of ProZES requires expertise in ionising radiation and its effects. The results of ProZES alone are not sufficient for a decision when validating occupational diseases. They are only one of several building blocks in the case assessment.