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Nuclear Safety > ... > Expert report on a "renaissance of nuclear energy"
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Expert report on a "renaissance of nuclear energy"
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 On behalf of the Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS), Swiss Prognos AG has analysed the conditions for the world-wide expansion of nuclear energy according to the plans of the nuclear industry and the various scenarios of the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD.
The result of the study which was published in 2009: Until 2030 there will be no renaissance of nuclear energy. The age-related shutdowns will rather lead to a clear decrease in the number of reactors, the installed capacity and the power generation in nuclear power plants. Until 2020, the number of nuclear power plants operated world-wide will probably reduce by 22 per cent, until 2030 by ca. 29 per cent, compared with the starting level in March 2009.
The study’s objectiveThe study of Prognos AG of 2009 aims at providing a realistic assessment of the future world-wide use of nuclear energy until 2030. The question is to be answered whether nuclear energy use is likely to undergo a renaissance.
ApproachFollowing a survey of the current status and the history of the world-wide use of nuclear energy, the study compares international scenarios of nuclear energy use and examines the announcements of new reactors being built world-wide. The power plant projects rated by the IAEA as being “under construction” at the time the study was carried out, will be evaluated in terms of whether it is probable that they will be completed in the period under consideration.
At the core of the analysis is the evaluation of announcements of new reactors in view of challenges with regard to, among others, infrastructure, fuel supply and financing. The study evaluates each country’s announcements by means of an indicator-based method that considers a country’s political stability and its practical experience with reactor-building, its credit rating, the chances of realisation in the context of the respective energy market, the limited global supply of reactor pressure vessels and the current world economic crisis.
Results of the studyThe authors of the study published in 2009 do not expect a renaissance of the use of nuclear energy until 2030. The age-related shutdowns will rather lead to a clear decrease in the number of reactors, the installed capacity and the power generation in nuclear power plants.
Until 2020, the number of nuclear power plants operated world-wide will probably reduce by 22 per cent, until 2030 by ca. 29 per cent, compared with the starting level in March 2009.
In spite of an increase in construction activity compared with construction in the last ten years, the building boom of the 1970s/1980s will not be reached again.
There is an increase in announcements of nuclear power plants. However, ambitious announcements of the past – in particular in the USA but in other countries as well – have subsequently not materialised. The authors of the study expect that about 23 per cent of all the projects announced by the German “International Journal for Nuclear Power” ATW for the time until 2020 will be realised, and that about 35 per cent of the projects announced by the World Nuclear Association (WNA) for the time until 2030 will be realised.
The evaluation is influenced especially by the chosen assumptions regarding the remaining lifetime of the existing nuclear power plants and the extent to which the announcements of China, Russia, the USA, India and Japan will materialise.
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