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Ionising Radiation > Überwachung der Umweltradioaktivität (IMIS) > Prognoses
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Prognoses on the radiological situation
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All measures are aimed at reducing or avoiding future radiation exposure. Therefore, not only the current exposure level is important, but also how this level will develop. Within IMIS, two decision-support systems are available: PARK (short for “Program for the Estimation of Radiological Consequences”) and RODOS (short for "Realtime Online Decision Support System"). With the help of these models, future environmental contaminations and the prospective doses can be estimated.
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Depiction of the contamination of leaf vegetables with radioiodines.
Values were calculated during an exercise with PARK.
(click picture for a larger view)
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Depiction of the effective dose by way of inhalation and direct radiation, integrated over a period of seven days.
Values were calculated during an exercise with PARK. (click on the picture for a larger view)
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What do the models show?
PARK and RODOS reflect the behavior of radioactive substances in the environment, as well as the pathways of exposure to humans: the external exposure to humans from radiation resulting from a radioactive cloud and the activity that comes from terrestrial radiation, as well as the internal exposure from the incorporation of radionuclides by way of inhalation and ingestion (foodstuff incorporation). The German Weather Service (DWD) supports the BfS during these calculations by providing dispersion prognoses.
Results are displayed in maps showing the urgency of measures. These maps are based on comparisons of prognosticated expositions with the dose limits and/or emergency reference levels of the respective measures.
The picture on the right shows a map on the contamination of leaf vegetables with iodine-131 (I-131). The European Union (EU) dose limit is 2,000 Becquerel per kilogram (Bq/kg). The colors (dark green to yellow) indicate that those values are below the EU emergency reference level. In the orange and purple areas, the contamination is higher than the dose limit. The areas displayed in dark green and dark purple are areas where the contamination is much higher respectively much lower than the [dose] limit.
A green map, for example, indicates that no measures are necessary (confer picture), whereas red shows that measures need to be taken. Pre-formatted maps exist for agricultural products, but also for measures like evacuation, sheltering (staying in the building), Thyroid blocking (pharmaceutical use of iodine).
More information
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Printer safe version
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