The prognoses of waste volumes required for repository planning are based on the nuclear power plant operating times of 32 years set out in the provisions of the Atomic Energy Act and on the ban on building new nuclear power plants. This was in correspondence with the “Nuclear Consensus” agreed between the utilities and the federal government in 2000. Thus, a compromise was found between the immediate phase-out in 2000 and unlimited operating times.
In the coalition agreement between CDU, CSU, and FDP of 26 October 2009, the parties declared their willingness to extend the operating times of German nuclear power plants. More detailed regulations are to be set out in an agreement with the operators regarding the conditions for an extension of operating times. Since these regulations have not yet been established, model assumptions for an extension of operating times of 10, 20, and 30 years for all nuclear power plants have been made which are shown in the following.
Waste with Negligible Heat Generation
As regards waste with negligible heat generation, a production of waste of 45 m3 per power reactor and operational year is meanwhile generally assumed. Assuming an extension of operating times of all currently running 17 nuclear power plants by 10, 20, or 30 years, compared with the 32 years of operational time set out in the provisions of the Atomic Energy Act, this would result in the following additional amounts of waste (the values were approximated):
Extension of
operating time
years
|
Total amount of additional waste
(operational waste)
m3
|
| 10 |
Approx. 7,650
|
| 20 |
Approx. 15,300
|
| 30 |
Approx. 22,950
|
According to the prognosis on the basis of the Atomic Energy Act
stating an amount of waste produced of then 60 m3 per power plant and
operational year (operating time 32 years) one would have to expect
277,000 m3 of waste until 2040 (cf. http://www.bfs.de/en/endlager/abfall_prognosen.html). Approx. 60
percent by volume of these arise in the nuclear power plants, the waste
from dismantling being the largest portion. Approx. 40 percent by
volume originate from other areas, less than 3 % from the federal state
collecting depots, among them the waste from medicine (less than 0.5
%).
Spent Fuel Elements
Spent fuel elements with approx. 370 tons of heavy metal (t HM) are
produced per year in the currently running 17 nuclear power plants. In
the case of changes of operating times the following additional amounts
of waste would result (the values were approximated):
Extension of operating time
years
|
Additional spent fuel elements
t HM
|
| 10 |
Approx. 3,700
|
| 20 |
Approx. 7,400
|
| 30 |
Approx. 11,100
|
The prognosis on the basis of the Atomic Energy Act (operating time 32
years) states 4,800 t HM after January 1, 2009. By the end of nuclear
energy use in Germany, altogether 17,400 t HM of spent fuel elements
are expected, 10,600 t HM of which are to be directly disposed of (cf.
http://www.bfs.de/en/endlager/abfall_prognosen.html). The volume
of this waste is expected to be 21,000 m3. In case operating times
would be extended, the amount of spent fuel elements additionally
arising would clearly increase according to the above table.
Conclusion
The amount of heat-generating waste, thus, strongly depends on the time
nuclear energy will be used. That does not apply to waste with
negligible heat generation, as it includes a large portion of waste
from dismantling and old waste from the large research institutions
going back to the time of the state research projects carried out for
introducing nuclear energy in Germany.
|
